‘Is China too old to get rich?&#82 • Table.Briefings

By Yi Fuxian

Yi Fuxian is a researcher at the University of Wisconsin in Madison and a leading demography expert inside and outside China.

China is supposed to join the group of high-income countries within the next two years. However, the weak economy and aging society make this highly unlikely.

In March, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced an ambitious economic growth target of 5 percent for 2024. In a subsequent commentary, former World Bank chief economist J u stin Yifu Lin endorsed the government’s target, predicting that China’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 5-6 percent over the coming decade before slowing to 3-4 percent between 2036 and 2050. Lin also suggested that China could achieve high-income status in 2026, if not 2025. Given China’s bleak demographic outlook, this seems highly unlikely.

‘Is China too old to get rich?’

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