- Setting and reviewing development goals around key anniversaries is an important way for the Chinese leadership to drive the reform agenda. Major occasions, especially National Day, provide a platform to celebrate achievements and align new efforts.
- China is currently 25 years away from its second centenary goal, a milestone tied to the „Two Centenaries,“ referring to the 100-year anniversaries of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
- In 2021, marking the CPC’s centenary, China announced that it had achieved its first goal of „building a moderately prosperous society.“ By 2049, the PRC’s centenary, China aspires to be a „modern socialist country.“
- To reach this second centenary goal, China aims to attain the level of moderately developed countries in terms of per capita GDP by 2035 and match developed economies by mid-century. While there is no clear definition of a „moderately developed country,“ most international and Chinese economists believe that it would mean doubling GDP per capita in the 15 years to 2035, requiring an annual GDP growth of around 4.6 percent over that period.
- Despite significant growth over the past decades, China’s GDP per capita has plateaued and even declined slightly from 2021 to 2023. With structural challenges including an aging population, a turbulent property market, and increasingly strained relations with the U.S., China’s path to achieving its second centenary goal is likely to be complex.
- In this difficult economic rebalancing, China’s top leaders announced a concerted stimulus package. In addition to the central bank’s interest rate cut, the latest Politburo meeting promised „necessary fiscal spending.“ If successfully implemented, this package could realign China’s growth with its 5 percent target.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.