Sinolytics Radar

Holiday-induced boom may not lead to long-term rally

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Published: February 28th, 2024,
Last updated: May 28th, 2025

Dieser Inhalt ist Lizenznehmern unserer Vollversion vorbehalten.
  • This year’s Spring Festival is the first to be completely free of Covid-19 influence. The 2023 holiday was still affected by a spike in infections after the government abruptly lifted the Covid restrictions. ​
  • More than 1.8 billion trips were made during the holidays this year, an increase of 16 percent year-on-year and 24 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Many people hit the road before the holidays start and/or return to the office after an extended stay. The official calculations therefore usually cover a 40-day period, and the number for this year is estimated to reach a record high of 9 billion. ​
  • People made 474 million visits to the country’s many tourist attractions. Interprovincial tourism gained popularity, with northern cities such as Harbin and southern cities such as Sanya witnessing an influx of visitors and a surge in local consumption of services. Domestic tourism revenue during the holiday period grew by 47.6 percent, surpassing that of 2019.​
  • In comparison, cross-border travel has not recovered to its pre-Covid levels, despite the number of travelers almost tripling year-on-year. The many visa-free schemes issued last year contributed significantly to the travel to and from the countries covered.   ​
  • While the consumption data is a positive sign for China’s economy, it also makes the non-holiday data look particularly bleak. Consumption growth generally lacked strength last year, despite some bright spots during the major holidays. The slowdown in disposable income growth and asset price fluctuations have dampened people’s willingness to spend, leading them to „unleash pent-up demand“ only during the holidays, according to a report by China International Capital Corporation. In addition, according to Goldman Sachs analysis, per capita consumption is still below the 2019 level.​

Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.

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