- When asked to pick a side between China and the US, ASEAN public opinion pivoted towards China for the first time since 2020.
- Major sentiment shifts were observed in Indonesia, Laos and Malaysia, where support for China increased by 20-30 percentage points. The Philippines moved against the trend, where support for the US increased by 4.5 percentage points.
- Indonesia, Laos and Malaysia are major beneficiaries of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Indonesia and Malaysia, both Muslim-majority countries, also saw rising anti-American sentiments due to perceived US support for Israel in the Israel-Hamas war.
- The Philippines and Vietnam, which are on the front lines of territorial disputes with China, maintained strong support for the US. In 2023, the US and the Philippines updated their mutual defense treaty and expanded defense cooperation agreements. Vietnam upgraded its bilateral relations with the US and entered into a maritime cooperation agreement with the Philippines in January 2024.
- With the US facing an election year in 2024, ASEAN’s confidence in the US as a reliable partner declined significantly. 47.2 percent of respondents were confident in the US in 2023, while only 34.9 percent still are in 2024.
- Despite the pivot, more than half of ASEAN respondents still reported concerns about China’s ever-growing economic, political and strategic influence.
- In addition, only 8 percent of respondents believe that ASEAN has to pick a side, while the overwhelming majority of 92 percent prefer some sort of neutral position or balancing option.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.