Once the ballot papers for the European elections have been counted next Monday, the poker for posts and influence in Brussels will really begin. Despite Charles Michel’s animosities and all the speculation surrounding Mario Draghi, Ursula von der Leyen still has the clearest prospect of becoming the new Commission President. Her EPP is expected to be the strongest force in the new European Parliament, and she has powerful advocates among the heads of state and government – including Olaf Scholz.