Published: May 14th, 2025,
Last updated: May 28th, 2025

The new EU fiscal rules have been in force since last fall: the maximum permissible government spending is now calculated using so-called Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSA). These project how the debt ratio of a member state will develop 14 to 17 years into the future. We show that these analyses ignore a key factor: the obstacles to growth that can result from climate impacts and compliance with climate targets. The projections of the debt sustainability analyses depend crucially on growth expectations.