Will she or won’t she run? As expected, Ursula von der Leyen did not answer the question that interests EU observers most in her State of the Union address. But even if she decides (also as expected) in the course of the next few months to run as the European People’s Party’s top candidate, she is by no means assured of a second term as Commission President. This is because the lead that the EPP holds in the polls over the second-placed Social Democratic S&D Group is melting away. In the current seat projection, it has reached one of the lowest values in this election period – it was closer only in the winter of 2021/22.