Opinion

Why did almost no one see inflation coming?

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Published: January 20th, 2022,
Last updated: May 30th, 2025

By Jason Furman
Jason Furman is a professor of economic policy practice and served as chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Experts.

In 2008, as the global financial crisis was ravaging economies everywhere, Queen Elizabeth II, visiting the London School of Economics, famously asked, „Why did nobody see it coming?“ The high inflation of 2021 – especially in the United States, where the year-on-year increase in consumer prices reached a four-decade high of 7% in December – should prompt the same question.

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Finance Inflation