- China’s exports in April jumped 8.1 percent compared to the previous year, significantly beating the 1.9 percent growth forecast from a Reuters poll. The surge was mainly driven by a 20.8 percent increase in exports to ASEAN countries, along with strong growth in trade with Latin America (+11.5 percent), Africa (+15 percent), and India (+16 percent).
- In contrast, exports to the US fell sharply by 21 percent year-on-year, and imports from the US dropped 14 percent. US-China trade has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, reflecting the impact of tariffs – some of which have reached 145 percent since being introduced under the Trump administration.
- Despite the drop in US trade, the overall export numbers suggest that the tariffs may be less impacting China than expected. Chinese firms have adapted by shifting production away from China and using alternative trade routes, including regional trade agreements and transshipment strategies, to sidestep tariffs.
- However, challenges remain. Factory activity in China contracted in April, and shipping volumes to the US dropped to levels last seen during the early pandemic. Analysts caution that the recent export boost may be short-lived, as job losses in export-heavy regions and falling producer prices (down 2.7 percent YoY) point to deeper structural issues.
- Looking ahead, the future of China’s manufacturing and export sector depends on both domestic policy support and the outcome of ongoing international negotiations. Chinese policymakers have ramped up stimulus measures, and early signs from renewed US-China trade talks suggest some progress – but uncertainty remains high.
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