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- Ambitious multilateral agreements are possible even in times of global geopolitical tensions. Fears of paralysis in the international community had hung over COP15, just as they did over the climate COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November. But even the consequences of a pandemic, global inflation, a hunger crisis and a Russian war of aggression did not prevent a successful conclusion. Apparently, despite a difficult environment, the UN states are not completely losing sight of the important survival issues.
- Autocratic governments as COP leaders prefer a different negotiating style: The Chinese presidency of COP15 and the Egyptian conference leadership of COP27 have in some cases defined their role differently than previous presidencies. Previously, maximum transparency, participation of all groups and acceptance of the „party-driven process“ were usually considered paramount, i.e. the autonomy of the member countries. Now, however, the Chinese and Egyptians presented significantly fewer interim results. Instead, there was partly non-transparent conduct of negotiations, partly chaotic organization, open and hidden confrontation with „inconvenient“ countries. This generated a lot of resentment – but delivered surprising results. The next climate COP will also take place in a country that is not a Western-style democracy: the United Arab Emirates.
- Nature is also becoming more important to climate nerds. So far, climate COPs have focused mainly on technical and political solutions. „Nature-based solutions“ have often been a topic for non-commital feel-good meetings. Now there are the commitments from the Montreal Agreement, which for the first time are also backed up with numbers (30 percent targets for protected areas, restoration of degraded lands, funding). This can no longer fall by the wayside in climate negotiations. And these targets were often negotiated by the same delegations and ministries that have a seat at the climate table.
- With the focus on nature, indigenous populations are coming more into focus. Their role is already inherent in the climate process but is not yet heavily weighted. With the focus on indigenous communities as custodians of biodiversity, the importance of these groups will change when it comes to, for example, carbon market issues in the climate talks (Article 6 negotiations). This could also lead to new internal conflicts within the UN states.
- The distribution of money also plays a major role in conservation. But details are unresolved, as in the climate debate. The industrialized nations have pledged to triple their aid to 20 billion dollars annually by 2025. But whether this pledge will be kept is uncertain after the experience with the missed 100 billion dollars from 2020 in climate action. It also remains unclear who will have to pay how much to whom – and whether there could be double counting with the climate billions. The group of donor countries has also not been expanded – as before, it remains the industrialized countries and voluntary contributions from other countries. China has announced its own fund to safeguard biodiversity in developing countries with 232 million dollars.
- Reducing environmentally harmful subsidies is at the top of the agenda. At least on paper. COP15 decided to review 500 billion dollars in government aid that harms the environment and climate. What will follow from this remains unclear – also because the G7 and G20 resolutions to reduce these „perverse subsidies“ are already hardly being implemented. And because the energy crisis has almost doubled the amount of state aid for fossil energies to almost 700 billion.
- The usual negotiating blocs are getting into disarray: China, as the self-appointed protective power of the G77, snubbed the African countries Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Uganda in Montreal. At COP27, the AOSIS island states let it be known that they expect China to help with global climate finance. India moved closer to the EU position with its push to phase out all fossil fuels. The BRICS southern coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa has not shown a unified position since the Russian war in Ukraine and the re-election of President Lula in Brazil. Multinational alliances such as the High Ambition Coalition across camps could benefit, depending on interests. Collaboration: Timo Landenberger