Published: March 20th, 2023,
Last updated: May 31st, 2025
Damage and losses due to climate change – such as flooding in West Java here – will increase in the future.
On Monday afternoon at 2 pm, the current state of research on the climate crisis was published. Following a week-long meeting in Interlaken, Switzerland, delegations from the scientific community and governments agreed on the Synthesis Report of the 6th Assessment Report (AR6). It warns as clearly as never before, urges haste and points out paths to solutions. Here are the key points from the report.
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Human activities are „unequivocally“ causing global warming of 1.1 degrees Celsius so far, compared to the average of the years from 1850 to 1900. „Widespread and rapid changes“ are noticeable in the atmosphere, oceans, ice regions and biospheres.
All regions of the planet are affected. But most of all, „vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected“.
„Without rapid,14 deep and sustained mitigation and accelerated adaptation actions“ loss and damage will continue to increase. Particularly affected: Africa, Asia, Central and South America, the Arctic, least developed countries and poor island states. Some changes are irreversible. Abrupt, irreversible damage becomes more likely as emissions increase.
NDCs could exceed 1.5-degrees soon
The limit for possible adaptation has already been reached in some ecosystems and regions. Adaptation funding is insufficient, progress is inadequate.
The National Climate Change Plans (NDCs), submitted by COP26 in Glasgow, are likely to exceed 1.5 degrees by the year 2100 and jeopardize achieving the 2 degrees target.
Global warming of 1.5 degrees will already be reached in the „near future“ at current emission trends. „Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years.“
„Overshooting“ 1.5 degrees and lowering it later – while technically possible – carries major risks. Tipping points could be exceeded and glaciers and corals could be irreparably damaged.
The current decade is crucial
Many climate risks are now estimated higher than in the previous AR5 report from 2014. Reasons: better understanding, progressing emissions, reciprocal amplification of climate risks.
Considering the health benefits of better air quality through reduced fossil fuel use, they can be as high as the costs of CO2 abatement, possibly even higher.
Current fossil fuel infrastructure exceeds 1.5-degree target
To slow down climate change, net zero emissions are necessary. Whether warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees or only beyond? For this, the cumulative emissions and the reduction „in this decade“ are decisive.
To maintain 1.5 degrees, global emissions would have to peak before 2025. Another new figure is the reduction by 2035 on the path to net zero: minus 60 percent compared to 2019.
Without CO2 capture, emissions generated by the existing fossil infrastructure will exceed the 1.5 degrees emissions budget.
The requirement for an energy system producing zero emissions on the bottom line is a „substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage“, greater efficiency, and better demand management.
80 percent of the 1.5 degree budget has already been used up
80 percent of the historical CO2 budget for 1.5 degrees has already been used up (to reach the target with only a 50 percent probability). For the 2-degree budget, two-thirds have been used up.
There is a „rapidly closing window of opportunity“ for a „liveable and sustainable future for all“. More funding and better adaptation are needed: „The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years.“
Further delaying emission reduction and adaptation could lead to locking in „high-emissions infrastructure,“ a higher risk of stranded assets („sunk costs“) and overall cost escalation. Fast action therefore means high direct investment and „potentially disruptive changes“ that need to be mitigated by „a range of enabling policies“.
There are solutions: „Feasible, effective, and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available“. They differ by region and sector.
Historical and social justice, inclusion and a just transition of the economy can make adaptation and emission reduction possible.
There are many options to reduce emissions-intensive consumption and change behavior and lifestyles. Often, this improves the quality of life.
Climate action needs political commitment, laws, policies and access to funding and technology.
To achieve the climate targets, adaptation and CO2 reduction funding would have to be increased many times over. There is sufficient capital available for these investments, „but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action“.
