The EU Commission is grappling with the question of what to do next with Ukrainian refugees starting March 2025. „There is currently a discussion, and we are exploring the possibilities,“ says a spokesperson for the EU Commission. The cause of uncertainty is the EU’s mass influx directive concerning temporary protection.
Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the mechanism was activated on March 4, 2022. All member states found it a good idea to avoid chaos. The regulation, as stated in Article 4 of the directive, can be extended twice, each time for a maximum of one year. About five million Ukrainians arrived in the EU under this regulation, with approximately one million in Germany alone, 80 percent of whom were women.
Had the Council not made the corresponding decision, the fleeing Ukrainians would have had to go through the regular procedure: They would have had to apply for asylum and, with high probability, would then have received refugee status under the Geneva Refugee Convention, known as subsidiary protection. The sheer volume would have overwhelmed the EU member states, particularly Germany’s administration. That’s why the federal government, as well as states and municipalities, wanted to apply this directive.
Second extension decided – but what then?
However, with the second extension until March 2025, decided in October 2023, the instrument is fully utilized if one takes Article 4 literally. It’s a problem because there’s little indication that Ukrainians could return to a peaceful country by 2025. Already last summer, a special envoy of the EU Commission warned in a report that a solution must be found promptly. It requires a long-term perspective, demanded by the former Belgian Minister of Labor, Lodewijk Asscher.
However, the controversial EU asylum package did not include negotiations on the directive for temporary protection. This makes a difference, especially for Germany, where the question has been looming for months whether the unequal treatment of Ukrainian and other refugees is justified.
Initial reflection exercises
In January, the EU Commission presented potential solutions at the informal meeting of Justice and Home Affairs Ministers. Belgian State Secretary for Migration Nicole de Moor described the exchange as „initial reflection exercises“. One of them: A creative interpretation of the directive applied so far, allowing for an extension beyond 2025. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson presented this option to the member states, according to Brussels sources. However, among legal scholars, the finite nature of the measure has been the unanimous legal opinion so far. When asked, the EU Commission’s Directorate-General for Home Affairs cannot provide details.
The German Federal Ministry of the Interior remains reserved amid the debates: „The BMI welcomes approaches that continue to enable coherent action by all member states to protect those who have fled from Ukraine to the EU due to the Russian war of aggression.“ Regarding the specific considerations of the EU Commission, Nancy Faeser’s ministry declines to comment and refers to the Commission and ongoing discussions among member states.
Regulatory need clashes with EU timeline
However, time is running out for a new regulation: The EU Commission has not yet put forward a formal proposal to amend the directive. Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson even announced that she would not submit any regulatory proposals until there was agreement on the target corridor. In April, the current European Parliament will meet for the last time, and elections will be held in June. After that, the new EU Commission must be appointed. Therefore, the EU legislative machinery will be at a standstill until at least September, possibly longer.
Moreover, in the second half of the year, it will be Hungary, of all countries, that will hold the Council Presidency, deciding on negotiation dates for projects. Thus, the remaining good year realistically only consists of a few weeks.
If the special status for the refugees from Ukraine were to be removed in Germany, significant administrative problems would arise. Primarily for the already overstretched immigration authorities and employment agencies: They would have to manage a million „clients“ much more intensively than before, scrutinizing claims more closely. Ukrainian residents already living here could potentially fall under the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act without a new regulation.
„However, this would not be the preferred option for us, as it would confront the immigration authorities with a flood of applications,“ explains a spokesperson for the German Association of Counties. „Therefore, as an alternative to an EU solution, only a general residence regulation in Germany seems to be possible, rendering individual applications obsolete.“ For newcomers, a regulation similar to that for asylum seekers should be considered, emphasizes the Association of Counties.
BMAS aims to grant regular resident status to Ukrainians
It’s no wonder that the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs primarily wants one thing: to remove Ukrainians from the special protection status. „Such a change is desirable from the perspective of the BMAS, also because it enables refugees and employers to have a secure perspective beyond the duration of the directive for temporary protection,“ a spokesperson told Table.Media.
However, from the refugees’ perspective, this is not automatically attractive: a change from the current protection system also means that they would initially have no entitlement to basic security or citizen’s income. At least not if they do not participate in labor market integration measures. However, this would entail considerable additional effort. The employment agencies and job centers could handle this, according to the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. „The Federal Employment Agency has demonstrated in the past that it can handle unexpected needs,“ the ministry of Hubertus Heil said.
Controversial EU asylum package could provide solution
Whether this would work smoothly, though? One way could be to add a corresponding amendment to the asylum package at the last minute. However, the problem does not arise equally in every EU country. Germany’s approach to uncomplicated reception based on social law might meet with little understanding from other member states and require further concessions in asylum law.
Thus, not only for those affected but also for a year before the likely expiration date, a problem looms that has been announced since the beginning of the regulation. Yet many stakeholders still hope for a European solution. Because even in the event of a swift peace in Ukraine, a rapid return for all refugees would hardly be realistic within a short time.